COVID-19: Germany versus France

COVID-19: Germany versus France

Or efficiency versus inefficiency

15 April 2020 – By Didier Bertin

The two leaders of the European Union, who use to be considered more or less on the same footing, are making an impressive demonstration of efficiency for Germany and inefficiency for France regarding the Covid-19. France has joined the group of worst European countries as Spain and Italy meanwhile Germany demonstrates that Covid 19 is not a so big problem with the proper steps. Yet France has a population slightly younger than that of Germany with 33% over 55 years as compared to 39% for Germany. This inefficiency of French Politicians involves substantial number fatalities and will deepen the economic gap between France and Germany since France will end the quarantine with one month delay. France GDP should decrease by 9%, public debt should increase to 120% of GDP together with an rising and sustainable unemployment.

Instead of remaining a leader of EU, France may become part of the group of members which are a burden for the European Union. France has failed in the fields of medical organization, economics and unfortunately of Democracy with her sudden appetite for severe repression against her own citizens. This has started uselessly one year ago to impose reforms which are now cancelled. The increase of repression with Covid-19 is particularly visible since the opposite situation has occurred in Germany, her closest neighbor. Germany is now progressively returning to normal life and French situation does not prevent the media to criticize the role of the “Länder” in this way because they seem to ignore what is a federation. It should be also noted that French media also criticize the USA despite the worst French death rate. The weakness of the USA is mainly the social protection of workers as this has always been.  In addition to Covid 19 and economy France will have to heal her famous vainglory.

Reminder of the last figures as of 14 April 2020

The 10 members out of 27 of the EU having more than 20 000 contaminations represent 94% of the contaminations in the EU and 97.6% of the fatalities. In adding the USA, the UK and Canada, these 13 western countries which are the main components of Western world represent 9.8% of the world population and gather 72.8% of the contaminations and 85% of the fatalities of the world regarding the Covid-19.

Ranking by number of weighted contamination cases

Assumed population of 100 million inhabitants per country

The number of contaminations is not meaningful for a contagious viral disease in absence of vaccine if the contaminated population benefited of efficient steps; these steps include the control and the necessary equipment and staff to treat the sick people needing a special care (15% of people on average) as this was done in Germany. In most of the “Länder” the quarantine is flexible and tolerant; this was not the case in France where exaggerated authoritarian steps were applied instead of an efficient policy.

The meaningful figures are the number of fatalities in proportion of the population and the death rate.

Ranking by number of weighted death cases

Assumed population of 100 million inhabitants per country

If we consider the same population of 67 million inhabitants (French population) for France and Germany, Germany would have 2 293 death cases and France 15 729; the difference of 13 436 lives lost in France is the price of inefficiency of the State from the start of crisis up to 14 April 2020. This price may continue to increase.

Ranking by death rates

Germany ranks first with a rate 2.54 times smaller than the averaged world rate and thus a recovery rate of 97.4%. France ranks 10^th with a rate 1.7 bigger than the world rate and thus a recovery rate of 89%.

German policy regarding Covid-19

Huge capacity to manufacture test kits and vast test campaigns

At the beginning of January the German Laboratories TIB Molbiol were aware of the viral situation abroad and started the production of tests in mid-January when the German hospital of Berlin “Charité”, published online a test formula.

In January TIB Molbiol accumulated inventories of products necessary to manufacture the test kits in order to avoid shortages despite no case of Covid 19 was identified in Germany at this time. Intensive test campaigns permit the slowdown of the virus propagation and the efficient treatment of the first cases at the beginning of the contamination and limiting thus the number of hospitalizations. In March tests have increased quickly to 100 000 tests per week. At the Same period the test made in France amounted to only 17 500 tests per week. On 26 March Bosch and Randox were able to manufacture automatic tests providing the result in two hours and thirty minutes. At the same period Germany has reached the level of 500 000 tests per week.

Adequate hospital capacity

In January, Germany had some 28,000 intensive care beds equipped with ventilators,  as compared to only 7 000 in France and 5 000 in Italy.

No strict quarantine

The ”Länder” decide of the restrictions according to their situation. Generally the system is much more flexible and less repressive than in France. The relative freedom left to citizens is part of the appropriate German policy.

Any policy must be conceived in order to guarantee the respect of all components of the Human Rights.