COVID 19 update 11 April 2020

COVID-19: UPDATE on 11 April 2020

Evolution from 4 to 10 April 2020

By Didier BERTIN

1-Absolute figures

For better assessment we have selected 6 countries: The USA, Spain, Italy, France Germany and the UK where the virus is the most active with 66.3% of the world contamination and 76.25% of the total related deaths.

This underlines how much the Covid-19 concerns the western countries and specially these 5 main western countries and thus for the time being we are far from a global phenomenon.

The substantial increase in contamination is mainly due to the USA where the pandemic has started later with 209 288 new cases in six days. The USA represent near 38% of the whole world increase. The contamination in the UK increases also substantially and is now approximately at the level of Spain, France and Germany regarding new cases meanwhile the increase is slightly slowing down in Italy.   

From 4 to 10 April contamination increased by 48.4% mainly in the 5 above mentioned countries whose increase was 46.5%. New cases in the world were 554 766 out of which 359 341 from these 5 western countries i.e. 64.8% of new cases.

 It is highly meaningful to notice that these 5 countries concentrate 76.8% of the related death cases worldwide. The number of death cases was mainly generated by the USA, Spain, Italy, France and Germany with 67 407 dead people i.e.65.3% of the total related to Covid-19 death cases in the world.

 

BNO news

Popul

cases

cases

 

 

Death

Death

 

 

Death ratio%

 

10 April 20

Mn

04-April

10-April

Increase

%

04-April

10-April

Increase

%

04-April

10-April

1

USA

329

293 208

502 396

209 188

71%

7 864

18 703

10 839

138%

2.68

3,72

2

SPAIN

47

124 736

160 835

36 099

29%

11 814

16 208

4 394

37%

9.47

10,1

3

ITALY

60

124 632

148 015

23 383

19%

15 632

18 939

3 307

21%

12.33

12,8

4

France

67

94 461

124 869

30 408

32%

6 507

13 197

6 690

103%

10.12

10,6

5

GERMANY

83

94 461

122 869

28 408

30%

1 365

2 736

1 371

100%

1.45

2,23

6

UK

66

41 903

73 758

31 855

76%

4 313

8 958

4 645

108%

10.29

12,2

 

TOTAL

652

773 401

1 132 742

359 341

 

47 495

78 741

31 246

66%

6.1 

7,8

 

world

7800

1 152 131

1 706 897

554 766

 

62 535

103 214

40 679

65%

 5.4

7,9

 

%

8,3%

 

66,3%

64.8%

 

 75.9%

86,4%

76,8%

 

 

 

 

2- Relative value figures

A-Cases

Of course figures are more meaningful in relative value i.e. weighted to neutralize the effect of the size of the population of each country. We have considered the number of contaminated and death cases for 100 million people for each country.

We may see now that Spain is the worst case by far in contamination with 342 000 cases for 100 million inhabitants and Italy is far behind with 246 692 cases for 100 million inhabitants, France being ranking unfortunately third due to bad management of the crisis. USA despite the jump of cases ranks still behind France.

 

Cases

Pop mn

10/04/2020

Weighted

%

1

SPAIN

47

160 835

342 202

29

2

ITALY

60

148 015

246 692

21

3

France

67

124 869

186 372

16

4

USA

329

502 396

152 704

13

5

GERMANY

83

122 869

148 035

12

6

UK

66

73 758

111 755

9

 

TOTAL

652

1 132 742

1 187 759

 

 

world

7800

1 706 897

 

 

 

%

8,3

 

10 April 20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

B-Death cases

For 100 million inhabitants Spain ranks first and Italy is not far. France is doing much better with a figure which is 57% of the figure of Spain. USA has finally a much lower figure on the basis of 100 million inhabitants and is still in a better situation that the main European countries despite the media’s comments in France.

 

10/04/2020

population mn

Death

Weighted

1

SPAIN

47

16 208

34 485

2

ITALY

60

18 939

31 565

3

France

67

13 197

19 697

4

UK

66

8 958

13 573

5

USA

329

18 703

5 685

6

GERMANY

83

2 736

3 296

 

C-death ratio

This figure is a good assessment of medical efficiency in the field of equipment and expertise. In the world the situation worsens with a ration of 7.9% as compared to 5.4% six days ago probably because the increase in number of cases has a saturation effect on staff and equipment. Germany is still the best European country in this respect with a ratio of 2.23% and the USA is not doing so well but remains in a satisfactory level of 3.72% despite the French media comments. Spain, France, the UK and Italy have figures of between 10.08% and 12.8% i.e. much more that the world average of 7.9%, which are not at all in line with expected performances in  western developed countries.

 

10/04/2020

popul

Death ratio %

1

GERMANY

83

2,2

2

USA

329

3,7

3

SPAIN

47

10,1

4

France

67

10,6

5

UK

66

12,2

6

ITALY

60

12,8

 

world

7 800

7.9

 

3-Conclusion

The high death ratios in Spain, Italy, the UK and France which are the main contaminator of Corona-19 show a “de facto” lack of investment, equipment and staff in number and expertise at the highest level together to a clumsy political management.  

In addition in France we lack of pragmatism necessary in emergency and the country suffers of rigidity in the medical and political field up to delaying an existing treatment at the cost of many lives putting national economy and welfare at high risk. After years of efforts to increase the number of jobs the wish not to take responsibility may create a long run and substantial unemployment.

Israel who has one of the best death ratio related to Covid-19 of 0.95% only, as compared to 7.9% in the world and 10.6% for France i.e. a ratio 11 times worse, is importing large quantities of “Chloroquine” as advised by Pr Didier Raoult; he is not respected in his own country because of a struggle of “egos” in the medical sector which needs to be cleaned up urgently. It must be noted that this product is inefficient at end-stages when virus is no more active and when it is utilized in France and should be taken from the start after an adequate medical checking. France always tends to push away to the USA its best scientists by respect of local sclerosed scientists.

We must underline the fact that the quarantine added to endless news from media and constant alerts from the State on the same topic may endanger the psychological health of citizens on top of the viral problem that may legitimate immediate investigations at the highest level of authorities, of the Parliament (Senate and House of Representatives).