COVID 19 CORONA VIRUS VALID STATISTICS HUMAN RIGTS RISKY POLICY impoverishment

Suvey in English Covid-19

COVID-19

Risky governance for health, economy and democracy

Statistical analysis - April 4, 2020

By Didier Bertin

INTRODUCTION

Since the end of WW II economic interventionism has been opposed to economic liberalism in Europe and many States have gradually abandoned their role as actor in the economy to the private sector. This situation has been aggravated by the fact that an increasing number of public services, assimilated to commercial enterprises, have been gradually privatized. This policy has aimed to guarantee a strict application of market mechanisms to the whole economy in order to facilitate the action of private companies at domestic, European and international levels. European States have substantially reduced their power following the American model, thereby neglecting long-term strategic management in the field of economics. As a matter of facts EU’s guidelines (European Union) aim to reduce the role of the State and consequently alter social systems and in particular those regarding health, solidarity, education and pensions.

The disarray of states facing Covid-19 is largely due to their disengagement policy in economic and social affairs. Statistical analysis of the phenomenon is not simple since the figures are constantly evolving on the basis of different starting points of pandemic for each country. Analysis of the figures on April 4, however, reveals a number of key points for understanding the phenomenon.

The figures show that Covid-19 is not really a global phenomenon but that it concerns in increasing order Italy, Spain, the other European countries and the other Western countries. The EU accounts for 45.4% of contamination on April 4 and the western world for 73% while the western population constitutes only 11.6% of the world population. The development of the Covid-19 is therefore linked to mechanisms of Western world.

In France, elected officials were deaf to the protests of citizens and finally Covid-19 was heard in their place by imposing the suspension of reforms including that of pensions. The savings expected by reforming pensions now appear paltry as compared to the cost of quarantine due to mismanagement of the health sector. For many years the representatives of health sector have not stopped alerting the State of their urgent needs without being heard.

They were even told in France that there was no "magic money" to meet their needs. The State's defeat by the Covid-19 is all the more significant since this virus is harmless in most cases although very contagious. As a matter of fact 85% of contaminated people survive without care and only 10% recover at hospital. With and without hospital support, the average cure rate is 95%. In fact, the number of deaths (which often concerns people with multiple pathologies) is on average around 5% of contaminated people. The death ratio varies widely according to the efficiency of the medical system of each country. Italy breaks the world record for ineffectiveness with 12.33% of deaths, but France is also badly classified with a rate of 10.11%; the best results are those of Israel and Australia with a rate of 0.55%; Germany also has a very good death ratio with only 1.45% which is much better than that of most other EU members. On April 4, 2020, the number of contaminated people in the world stood at 1,125,131, or 0.01% of the world’s population of 7,800 million, and the number of deaths linked to Covid-19, in relation to the world’s population is close to zero.

The dramatization of Covid-19’s effects fostered by States and their media is mostly due to countries inability to properly hospitalize 15% of contaminated people needing a special care.

The health sector in France, as in many western countries contaminated by the virus, lacks capacity, equipment and staff. The number of intensive care beds would have amounted in France at 7, 000 at the start of the pandemic as compared to 25,000 in Germany. The media flood the public with figures in absolute value whose effects are more frightening than those of figures in relative value yet more significant. The core business of the media remains unfortunately the spreading of frightening events more favorable for ratings.

Nor is it reasonable for politicians to hide behind the advice of doctors and simultaneously for doctors to hide behind the decision of politicians, each passing the buck to shirk responsibility. If the complete stopping of national activity indeed stops the spread of all viruses, it causes in medium term insurmountable economic damages impoverishing the nation and then calling into question the whole health system. It is up to politicians alone to make the decision protecting the citizens without putting the country in bankruptcy.

Health system failures combined with the inability to provide effective protective masks "to the whole population" and not just to caregivers may unnecessarily extend quarantine duration which is detrimental to the national economy and to the fundamental human rights.

In Japan, where wearing a mask has been customary for a long time, there has been an almost total absence of Covid-19 with only 3,508 cases as of April 4 for a population of 126 million inhabitants. The existential need to get out of quarantine as a matter of urgency goes through the widespread wearing of an effective mask until the definitive adoption of a treatment which would reduce hospitalizations, then later of a vaccine.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The pandemic figures are constantly changing and we have considered the situation on 04 April 2020 in order to draw first conclusions and a rational way of reading the statistics. The figures are constantly updated for all countries by "BNO News.com". In order to make comparisons between countries it is necessary to weight the figures in order to cancel the effect of the size of their population. The weighted figures in the tables below represent the number of contaminated people and related deaths per 100 million inhabitants. The ratio of the number of deaths to the number of infections is indicative of the effectiveness of each country's health system. We have determined that 25 out of 194 countries with at least 4,000 cases of contamination accounted for 91.50% of global contamination and 96% of global virus-related deaths and that the analysis restricted to these 25 countries is significant.

In addition, and in order to determine the influence of economic models on the pandemic, a specific analysis was made for the European Union and the western countries.

These 25 countries which concentrate 91.5% of contamination represent only 36% of the world population and 13% of the number of countries and without China, 24 countries which gather 84% of contaminations represent only 17.8% of the world population. In addition, 9 countries, i.e. 4.6% of the number of countries which each have more than 20,000 contaminated people, have together a total of 903,391 cases or 78.4% of worldwide contamination.

The pandemic is therefore localized geographically at the moment.

1-CLASSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE NUMBER OF CASES OF 25 COUNTRIES PRESENTING MORE THAN 4,000 CASES - WITHOUT WEIGHTING -

RANK

25  COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 4000 CASES - 04 April 2020 - RE:BNONEWS.COM

 

COUNTRY

POPULATION

000 000

CASES

 

DEATHS

 

% death/cases

1

USA

329

293 308

 

7 864

 

2,68

2

SPAIN

47

124 736

 

11 814

 

9,47

3

ITALY

60

124 632

 

15 362

 

12,33

4

GERMANY

83

94 461

 

1 365

 

1,45

5

CHINA

1 400

83 349

 

3 326

 

3,99

6

France

67

64 338

 

6 507

 

10,11

7

IRAN

83

55 743

 

3 452

 

6,19

8

UK

66

41 903

 

4 313

 

10,29

9

TURKEY

83

20 921

 

425

 

2,03

10

Switzerland

9

19 943

 

632

 

3,17

11

BELGIUM

11

18 431

 

1 283

 

6,96

12

NL

17

16 627

 

1 651

 

9,93

13

CANADA

38

12 953

 

217

 

1,68

14

AUSTRIA

9

11 589

 

186

 

1,6

15

Portugal

10

10 524

 

266

 

2,53

16

South Korea

52

10 156

 

177

 

1,74

17

BRAZIL

211

9 126

 

365

 

3,96

18

ISRAEL

9

7 589

 

42

 

0,55

19

SWEDEN

10

6 643

 

373

 

5,79

20

AUSTRALIA

25

5 550

 

30

 

0,54

21

NORWAY

5

5 519

 

62

 

1,12

22

RUSSIA

147

4 731

 

43

 

0,91

23

DENMARK

6

4 258

 

161

 

3,78

24

CZ

11

4 194

 

56

 

1,34

25

CHILE

19

4 161

 

27

 

0,65

 

TOTAL

2 788

1 055 385

 

59 999

 

5,7

 

WORLD

7 800

1 152 131

 

62 535

 

5,4

 

 

.35, 6%

91,50%

 

96%

 

 

 

 

2- CLASSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE NUMBER OF WEIGHTED CASES BY THE POPULATION OF 25 COUNTRIES PRESENTING MORE THAN 4000 CASES (CONTAMINATIONS FOR 100 MILLION INHABITANTS)

 

RANK

25  COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 4000 CASES - 04 april 2020 - RE:BNONEWS.COM

 

COUNTRY

POPULATION

CASES

WEIGHTED

DEATHS

 

% death/cases

1

SPAIN

47

124 736

265 396

11 814

 

9,47

2

Switzerland

9

19 943

221 589

632

 

3,17

3

ITALY

60

124 632

207 720

15 362

 

12,33

4

BELGIUM

11

18 431

167 555

1 283

 

6,96

5

AUSTRIA

9

11 589

128 767

186

 

1,6

6

GERMANY

83

94 461

113 808

1 365

 

1,45

7

NORWAY

5

5 519

110 380

62

 

1,12

8

Portugal

10

10 524

105 240

266

 

2,53

9

NL

17

16 627

97 805

1 651

 

9,93

10

France

67

64 338

96 026

6 507

 

10,11

11

USA

329

293 308

89 151

7 864

 

2,68

12

ISRAEL

9

7 589

84 322

42

 

0,55

13

DENMARK

6

4 258

70 966

161

 

3,78

14

IRAN

83

55 743

67 160

3 452

 

6,19

15

SWEDEN

10

6 643

66 430

373

 

5,79

16

UK

66

41 903

63 489

4 313

 

10,29

17

CZ

11

4 194

38 127

56

 

1,34

18

CANADA

38

12 953

34 086

217

 

1,68

19

TURKEY

83

20 921

25 206

425

 

2,03

20

AUSTRALIA

25

5 550

22 200

30

 

0,54

21

CHILE

19

4 161

21 900

27

 

0,65

22

South Korea

52

10 156

19 530

177

 

1,74

23

CHINA

1 400

83 349

5 953

3 326

 

3,99

24

BRAZIL

211

9 126

4325

365

 

3,96

25

RUSSIA

147

4 731

3 218

43

 

0,91

 

 

2 660

1 055 385

 

59 999

 

5,7

 

 

7 800

1 152 131

 

62 535

 

5,4

 

 

.35,7%

91,50%

 

96%

 

 

 

Spain is the most affected country in the world, followed in third place by Italy, but Switzerland appears to be the second most affected country; this situation is not perceptible without weighting given the small population of Switzerland.

France actually appears to be in a much better position in weighted value than in absolute value and ranks 10th behind 9 European countries including 7 EU countries but ahead of the USA whose situation is for the moment slightly better than that of France.

Sweden, which has rejected the principle of quarantine against the virus, ranks 15th in number of weighted cases, which questions the interest of quarantine. However, wearing a mask would further improve the situation of Sweden which is satisfactory and this appears to be the most reasonable situation to go out of quarantine in order not to endanger the national economy.

In number of weighted cases, Spain, Italy but also Belgium, Austria, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands have more cases than France among EU members.

Israel ranks 12th despite effective steps; as a matter of fact ultra-Orthodox Jews reject the compulsory medical steps to put their fate in the hands of God. The epicenter of the pandemic in Israel is the ultra-Orthodox city of Bnei Brak (where 40% of people are contaminated by the virus). A similar situation was observed in France in Mulhouse where a banned Christian meeting of 2,500 people has contaminated the region.

Out of the 25 most affected countries, 11 are members of the EU and China ranks only 23rd. China had put in quarantine fifteen cities including Wuhan totaling 45 million inhabitants, that is to say a population greater than that of many countries but which represented only 3.2% of the Chinese population. Stopping the activity of 45 million inhabitants in China has only a negligible effect on this country.

 

3- CLASSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE WEIGHTED DEATHS OF THE 25 COUNTRIES PRESENTING MORE THAN 4000 CASES OF CONTAMINATION (NUMBER OF DEATHS PER 100 MILLION INHABITANTS PER COUNTRY)

 

 

RANK

25  COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 4000 CASES - 04 april 2020 - RE:BNONEWS.COM

 

COUNTRY

POPULATION

CASES

 

DEATHS

WEIGHTED

% death/cases

1

ITALY

60

124 632

 

15 362

25 603

12,33

2

SPAIN

47

124 736

 

11 814

25 136

9,47

3

BELGIUM

11

18 431

 

1 283

11 664

6,96

4

France

67

64 338

 

6 507

9 712

10,11

5

NL

17

16 627

 

1 651

9 712

9,93

6

Switzerland

9

19 943

 

632

7 022

3,17

7

UK

66

41 903

 

4 313

6 535

10,29

8

IRAN

83

55 743

 

3 452

4 159

6,19

9

SWEDEN

10

6 643

 

373

3 730

5,79

10

DENMARK

6

4 258

 

161

2 683

3,78

11

Portugal

10

10 524

 

266

2 660

2,53

12

USA

329

293 308

 

7 864

2 390

2,68

13

AUSTRIA

9

11 589

 

186

2 067

1,6

14

GERMANY

83

94 461

 

1 365

1 645

1,45

15

NORWAY

5

5 519

 

62

1 240

1,12

16

CANADA

38

12 953

 

217

571

1,68

17

TURKEY

83

20 921

 

425

512

2,03

18

CZ

11

4 194

 

56

509

1,34

19

ISRAEL

9

7 589

 

42

467

0,55

20

South Korea

52

10 156

 

177

340

1,74

21

CHINA

1 400

83 349

 

3 326

238

3,99

22

BRAZIL

211

9 126

 

365

173

3,96

23

CHILE

19

4 161

 

27

142

0,65

24

AUSTRALIA

25

5 550

 

30

120

0,54

25

RUSSIA

147

4 731

 

43

29

0,91

 

 

2 660

1 055 385

 

59 999

 

5,7

 

 

7 800

1 152 131

 

62 535

 

5,4

 

 

.35,7%

91,50%

 

96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In terms of death Italy and Spain are very much in the lead; their situation is serious and fortunately is not comparable to that of other countries. France is far behind these two countries and should not achieve a comparable development.

Sweden despite the absence of quarantine, ranks 10th in weighted value which is better than France and less than Germany. Once again, if the wearing of a mask was compulsory, Sweden would rank at a much better place and would definitively question the usefulness of quarantine.

The figures for Italy and Spain are so high that they remain very significant both in absolute and relative values. As of April 4, Italy and Spain suffered 27,176 deaths, i.e.  45.3% of all deaths worldwide related to Covid-19.

Italy and Spain are probably the victims of long-standing abhorrent governance and of a health system unsuitable for European standards. The top 5 countries with the higher weighted figures regarding death cases linked to the virus are members of the EU: Italy, Spain, Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

 

4- CLASSIFICATION OF THE 25 COUNTRIES PRESENTING MORE THAN 4000 CASES OF CONTAMINATION ACCORDING TO THE RATIO OF NUMBER OF DEATHS TO NUMBER OF CASES

                 
 

25  COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 4000 CASES - 04 April 2020 - RE:BNONEWS.COM

 
 

COUNTRY

POPULATION

CASES

 

DEATHS

 

% death/cases

 

1

AUSTRALIA

25

5 550

 

30

 

0,54

 

2

ISRAEL

9

7 589

 

42

 

0,55

 

3

CHILE

19

4 161

 

27

 

0,65

 

4

RUSSIA

147

4 731

 

43

 

0,91

 

5

NORWAY

5

5 519

 

62

 

1,12

 

6

CZ

11

4 194

 

56

 

1,34

 

7

GERMANY

83

94 461

 

1 365

 

1,45

 

8

AUSTRIA

9

11 589

 

186

 

1,6

 

9

CANADA

38

12 953

 

217

 

1,68

 

10

South Korea

52

10 156

 

177

 

1,74

 

11

TURKEY

83

20 921

 

425

 

2,03

 

12

Portugal

10

10 524

 

266

 

2,53

 

13

USA

329

293 308

 

7 864

 

2,68

 

14

Switzerland

9

19 943

 

632

 

3,17

 

15

DENMARK

6

4 258

 

161

 

3,78

 

16

BRAZIL

211

9 126

 

365

 

3,96

 

17

CHINA

1 400

83 349

 

3 326

 

3,99

 

18

SWEDEN

10

6 643

 

373

 

5,79

 

19

IRAN

83

55 743

 

3 452

 

6,19

 

20

BELGIUM

11

18 431

 

1 283

 

6,96

 

21

SPAIN

47

124 736

 

11 814

 

9,47

 

22

NL

17

16 627

 

1 651

 

9,93

 

23

France

67

64 338

 

6 507

 

10,11

 

24

UK

66

41 903

 

4 313

 

10,29

 

25

ITALY

60

124 632

 

15 362

 

12,33

 

 

TOTAL

2 807

1 055 385

 

59 999

 

5,7

 

 

WORLD

7 800

1 152 131

 

62 535

 

5,4

 

 

 

.35,7%

91,50%

 

96%

 

 

 
                 
                               

This ratio reveals medical expertise and the level of equipment. The world average is 5.4% and that of the 25 most affected countries is 5.7%. The average cure rate is therefore around 95%, but some countries have better medical know-how and thus better results. The two countries with most effective medicine appear to be Australia and Israel with a cure rate of 99.5%. It should be noted that Germany, Austria, Canada and South Korea have a very satisfactory ratio of less than 2%.

The worst-off countries are Italy: 12.3% of deaths, the United Kingdom: 10.29%, France: 10.11%, the Netherlands: 9.93% and Spain: 9.47%.

The figures for France are undoubtedly affected by the lack of equipment and staff, but the training of doctors can probably be improved. The same remarks apply to the United Kingdom. Among the EU members Germany and Austria are among the best countries in the medical field. Germany is the only European country to fully control the Covid-19 pandemic.

5-COVID-19 - EUROPEAN UNION- WESTERN WORLD

04/04/2020

COUNTRIES

CASES

DEATH

DEATH RATIO%

POPULATION

 

USA

293 308

7 864

2,68

329

 

CANADA

12 953

217

1.68

38

 

AUSTRALIA

5 550

30

0,54

25

 

N ZEALAND

950

82

0.11

5

 

 Subtotal

312 761

9 193

2.93

397

 

UK

41 903

4 313

10.29

66

 

TOTAL

354 664

12 506

3.52

463

1

ITALY

124 632

15 362

12.33

60

2

SPAIN

124 736

11 814

9,47

47

3

GERMANY

94 461

1 365

1,45

83

4

France

64 338

9 712

10.11

67

5

BELGIUM

18 431

1 243

6.96

11

6

NL

16 627

1 651

9.93

17

7

AUSTRIA

10 769

146

1,36

9

8

Portugal

10 524

187

2,53

10

9

SWEDEN

6 643

373

5.79

10

10

CZ

4 194

56

1,34

11

11

IRELAND

4 273

120

2.81

5

12

DENMARK

4 258

161

3,78

6

13

ROMANIA

3 613

140

3.87

19

14

POLAND

3 627

79

2.18

38

15

LUX

2 729

117

1.14

1

16

FINLAND

1 882

20

1.06

6

17

GREECE

1 673

68

4.06

11

18

CROATIA

1 079

8

0.74

4

19

SLOVENIA

934

20

2.14

2

20

ESTONIA

961

12

1.25

1

21

LITHUANIA

771

9

1.17

3

22

HUNGARY

678

32

4.72

10

23

LATVIA

509

0

0

2

24

BULGARIA

498

14

2.81

7

25

SLOVAKIA

471

0

0

1

26

CYPRUS

396

13

3.28

1

27

MALTA

202

0

0

1

 

EU

503 947

31 116

6.17

443

 

WORLD %

43.7%

68.3%

 

5.7%

 

WEST

858 369

55 190

6.43

906

 

WORLD %

74.5%

88.2%

 

11.6%

 

WORLD

1 152 131

62 535

5.42

7 800

           

The situations in Italy and Spain are worsening and these two countries account for almost 50% of the contaminations and 87% of the deaths in the EU. The EU accounts for 44% of infections and 50% of deaths worldwide. Italy and Spain respectively represent 22% and 43% of the contaminations and deaths worldwide. The main western countries including those of the EU and the USA,  the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand account for 74.5% of the contaminations and 88.2% of the deaths in the world whereas their population represents only 11.6% of the world's population.

 

CONCLUSION

There is no doubt that quarantine now is a serious threat to the future of the European countries and that it must be urgently ended. Covid-19 mainly concerns the Western world. Outside of Germany, EU countries do not appear to be very effective in combating the virus, while Italy and Spain reveal substantial and unexpected underdevelopment of their health systems.

The particular vulnerability of the Western world can be due to both positive and negative factors. The West benefits of an important economic development which resulted in a high level of circulation of goods and people for trade and tourism amplified by low cost air transport. Unfortunately this very positive flow also benefits viruses. The undesirable effect of viruses’ propagation is also due to the economic and ideological system generally adopted in the West. This consists in reducing the role of the State in favor of private interests considered as economic growth factors. The predominance of private interest led to deindustrialization even in strategic areas, as well as to a substantial decline in public services, including those linked to the health system. Private companies’ management model was applied to Public services entities and undermined the concept of solidarity.

Investments in hospital were insufficient in Europe and in France despite constant alerts. The inability to produce sufficient quantity of protective masks for the whole population led to quarantine which might if it continues, weaken for a long period the national economy of each country: GDP, Public debt, State budget, jobs, and public services.

Sweden shows that despite the reject of quarantine principle the situation remains manageable although wearing a mask would certainly be an improvement. Sweden probably has a health system that allows it to cope with hospitalizations, which is not the case in most other countries.

The source of the problem is therefore not virus but governance. In France governance may be improved by requesting more often the opinion of the electorate with a system limiting in time the mandate of elected people with for example a presidential mandate limited to 4 years and MP’s mandate limited to 2 years as in the USA.