Geopolitics-Oil=Risk for Democracies
PLANETARY GEOPOLITICS AND ECONOMICS TODAY
IV: OIL: RISK FOR DEMOCRACIES
Society for the Promotion of a European Human Rights Model
Association pour la Promotion d'un Modèle Européen des Droits de l'Homme
By Didier BERTIN
July 20, 2012
Table of Contents
I-INTRODUCTION-page 7
II - GDP - page 11
1-THE TWO WORLD LEADERS: UNITED STATES AND CHINA AND THE OTHER THIRTEEN COUNTRIES HAVING A GDP HIGHER THAN ONE TRILLION USD -page 11
2-THE FIRST FOURTEEN COUNTRIES - INDIA EXCLUDED page 13
3-COUNTRIES HAVING A GDP INCLUDED BETWEEN ONE HUNDRED BILLION USD AND ONE TRILLION USD - page 13
4-THE OTHER HUNDRED THIRTY FOUR COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD INCLUDING INDIA-page 14
5-CASE OF THE FIRST THREE ECONOMIC LEADERS COMPARED TO THE FOURTH ONE- page 14
6-REAL WORLD AND MEDIA WORLD - PAGE 16
7-EXAMPLES OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN REAL WORLD AND MEDIA WORLD-Page 18
8-THE LIMITS OF GDP AND THE DANGERS OF ITS GROWTH - Page 44
III-MILITARY DETERRENCE - page 49
1-THE TWO REAL GREAT POWERS-Page 49
2-THE THREE SECONDARY POWERS page 51
3-OTHER COUNTRIES WITH ANNUAL DEFENCE BUDGET IN EXCESS OF FORTY BILLION - page 52
4 - ISRAEL -page 55
IV-OIL: RISK FOR THE DEMOCRACIES - page 57
1 - MAIN NET-OIL IMPORTERS -page 57
2-ORGANIZATION OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS - page 58
3-ECONOMIC SITUATION OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS - page 59
4-POLITY OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS - page 62
5- THE CHOICES IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY - page 65
V-PUBLIC DEBT-page 66
1 - KEY DATA ON PUBLIC DEBT-page 66
2- THE RISK OF OVER-INDEBTEDNESS CONCERNS ESSENTIALLY THE RICHEST COUNTRIES -page 67
3-THE PUBLIC "OVER-INDEBTED" COUNTRIES ARE MAINLY IN THE RICHEST ONES, ACCOUNTING FOR ONLY 13.9% OF WORLD POPULATION - page 68
4- EUROPEAN UNION, EURO AREA AND PUBLIC DEBT - page 71
5- JAPAN -page 73
6 - POLICY REGARDING PUBLIC INDEBTEDNESS-page 74
VI -OTHER ECONOMIC OPTIONS - page 75
1 - THE RISK OF PROTECTIONISM - page 75
2 - ECONOMIC CHALLENGES- page 76
VII - PLANETARY SOCIAL DISPARTIES - page 80
1-DEFINITION-page 80
2-CALCULATION- page-80
3-GINI INDEX APPLIED TO THE PLANET-page 81
4-ANALYSIS-page 86
VIII-THE REASONS WHY THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT A GREAT POWER - Page 93
1-EU AND NATO-page 93
2-CREATION AND TREATIES - EXPANSION AND INTEGRATION, Page 96
3-THE PROBLEM OF THE APPLICATION OF THE CHARTER OF FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS-page 98
4-THE CONSTRAINTS OF DECISION MAKING-page 100
5 - INSTITUTIONS page 101
6-THE POLITICAL ORIENTATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION-page 108
7-INTERNATIONAL POLITICS - page 112
8-THE CASE OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS - page 113
9- THE DISPARITIES OF THE MEDIAN INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION - page 114
10-THE NEW MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION -page 115
11-THE LIMITS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION page 116
12-A PARTICULAR EXAMPLE OF THE RIGHTIST ROOTING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION-page 119
A-The Prague Declaration of June 3, 2008 - page 120
B-The dangerous consequences of the Declaration of Prague and of the related Declaration of the European Parliament-page 121
k-DECLARATION - page 135
IX - GENERAL CONCLUSION -page 138
APPENDICES
1-DATA OF THE FIRST 60 COUNTRIES WITH GDP HIGHER THAN 100 BILLIONS USD AND THE REST OF THE WORLD - Pages 145 and 146
2-DATA ON THE INDEBTED COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION page 147
3-DATA OF THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES -page 148
4-GENERAL DATA OF THE EUROPEAN UNION -page 149
IV: OIL: RISK FOR DEMOCRACIES
1 - MAIN NET-IMPORTERS
|
GDP/ Population |
COUNTRIES |
BBL/DAY NET |
SUM bbl/day net |
GDP Billion USD |
1 |
47 962 |
USA |
8 350 000 |
8 350 000 |
15 060 |
2 |
46 012 |
JAPAN |
4 027 000 |
12 377 000 |
5 855 |
3 |
44 802 |
GERMANY |
2 201 000 |
14 578 000 |
3 629 |
4 |
41 910 |
FRANCE |
1 733 000 |
16 311 000 |
2 808 |
5 |
36 820 |
ITALY |
1 271 000 |
17 582 000 |
2 246 |
6 |
32 702 |
SPAIN |
1 554 000 |
19 134 000 |
1 537 |
7 |
23 755 |
SOUTH KOREA |
1 400 000 |
20 534 000 |
1 164 |
|
|
TOTAL |
|
|
32 299 |
8 |
8 406 |
CHINA |
4 574 000 |
25 108 000 |
11 290 |
9 |
1 529 |
INDIA |
2 234 000 |
27 342 000 |
1 843 |
|
SOURCES: CIA FACTBOOK |
MAIN OIL EXPORTS |
39 267 000 |
GRAND TOTAL WORLD PIB:74 460 |
45 432 |
The major net oil importers are of course countries that have the most developed economies with the exception of India, as shown by their GDP per capita and are democracies with the exception of China.
Most producers being poor countries, relations between producers and consumers may be stretched or insecure.
2-ORGANIZATION OF OIL PRODUCERS AND NET EXPORTERS
OIL EXPORTS BY PRODUCING COUNTRY IN EXCESS OF THEIR CONSUMPTION |
||||||||
|
COUNTRY |
BBL/DAY |
Share % |
EST. Date |
OPEC |
EXPORT OPEC |
PNB/Popul. dollars |
GINI% |
1 |
SAUDIA ARABIA |
7 635 000 |
19,4 |
2009 |
1960 |
7 635 000 |
20 741 |
60 |
2 |
RUSSIA |
5 010 000 |
12,7 |
2010 |
|
|
13 659 |
42 |
3 |
IRAN |
2 523 000 |
6,4 |
2009 |
1960 |
2 523 000 |
6 076 |
45 |
4 |
UAE |
2 395 000 |
6,1 |
2009 |
1967 |
2 395 000 |
71 600 |
60 |
5 |
NORWAY |
2 184 000 |
5,6 |
2009 |
|
|
95 800 |
25 |
6 |
IRAQ |
2 184 000 |
5,6 |
2011 |
1960 |
2 184 000 |
3 516 |
NA |
7 |
KUWAIT |
2 127 000 |
5,4 |
2009 |
1960 |
2 127 000 |
57 000 |
60 |
8 |
NIGERIA |
2 012 000 |
5,1 |
2009 |
1971 |
2 012 000 |
1 453 |
44 |
9 |
CANADA |
1 929 000 |
4,9 |
2009 |
|
|
51 735 |
32 |
10 |
VENEZUELA |
1 871 000 |
4,8 |
2009 |
1960 |
1 871 000 |
11 071 |
39 |
11 |
ANGOLA |
1 851 000 |
4,7 |
2009 |
2007 |
1 851 000 |
5 517 |
NA |
12 |
ALGERIA |
1 694 000 |
4,3 |
2009 |
1969 |
1 694 000 |
5 228 |
36 |
13 |
LIBYA |
1 580 000 |
4 |
2010 |
1962 |
1 580 000 |
14 000 |
NA |
14 |
MEXICO |
1 511 000 |
3,9 |
2009 |
|
|
10 304 |
52 |
15 |
KAZAKHSTAN |
1 390 000 |
3,5 |
2011 |
|
|
10 000 |
27 |
16 |
QATAR |
1 038 000 |
2,7 |
2011 |
1961 |
1 038 000 |
86 500 |
41 |
17 |
ECUADOR |
333 000 |
0,9 |
2007 |
2007 |
333 400 |
4 335 |
47 |
|
TOTAL |
39 267 000 |
100 |
|
69,20% |
27 243 400 |
|
|
In order to prevent that oil price decreases too much, Iran and Venezuela created OPEC in 1960. Today OPEC includes twelve countries exporting 69.2% of oil in the world.
This concentration of producer-exporter countries gives them a great power that allows them to be in a position to dramatically influence the oil prices and consequently the health of major economies.
Oil price seems to result from a precarious balance between the breaking of the world's major economies and that of the few producer-exporter countries.
In addition many OPEC countries are not real democracies and their room for maneuver is greater than those of importing countries.
Outside of OPEC, the largest producer-exporter of oil is Russia that provides 12.7% of world oil exports and which is not either a real democracy.
Seventeen countries are providing all the oil to about 170 countries (all countries of the world minus these 17 countries and self sufficient countries) and make the oil market, unbalanced and precarious.
3 - ECONOMIC SITUATION OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS
A- GDP BIGGER THAN USD 40 000 PER CAPITA
|
GDP PER CAPITA USD |
%world of oil exports |
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES |
71 600 |
6.1 |
NORWAY |
95 800 |
5.6 |
KUWAIT |
57 000 |
5.4 |
QATAR |
86 500 |
2.7 |
CANADA |
51 735 |
4.9 |
Total |
|
24.7 |
Among the producers-exporters, only five countries are rich and provide 24.7% of oil exports.
Apart from Norway and Canada, which have other resources that oil, only three countries, controlled by a few families, enjoy a high GDP per capita because of their small populations.
B- GDP PER CAPITA BETWEEN USD 30,000 AND USD 40,000
No producer-exporter country belong to this category.
C-GDP PER CAPITA BETWEEN 20 000 AND 30 000 USD
|
GDP per capita USD |
% of world oil exports |
SAUDIA ARABIA |
20 741 |
19.4 |
Only one country belongs to this category.
D-GDP PER CAPITA BETWEEN 10 000 AND 20 000 USD
|
GDP per capita USD |
% of world oil exports |
RUSSIA |
13 659 |
12.7 |
VENEZUELA |
11 071 |
4.8 |
LIBYA |
14 000 |
4.0 |
MEXICO |
10 304 |
3.9 |
KAZAKHSTAN |
10 000 |
3.5 |
TOTAL |
|
28.9 |
This category includes five relatively poor countries and provides the highest percentage of oil exports.
E-GDP PER CAPITA BETWEEN 0 AND 10 000 USD
|
GDP per capita USD |
% of world exports |
IRAN |
6 076 |
6.4 |
IRAQ |
3 516 |
5.6 |
NIGERIA |
1 453 |
5.1 |
ANGOLA |
5 517 |
4.7 |
ALGERIA |
5 228 |
4.3 |
ECUADOR |
4 335 |
0.9 |
TOTAL |
|
27 |
Six particularly poor countries provide 27% of oil exports.
Out of the seventeen producer exporter countries, twelve have a GDP per capita below 13 659 USD and eleven have populations that are under severe inequality of income distribution.
4 - POLITY OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS
OIL EXPORTS BY PRODUCING COUNTRY IN EXCESS OF THEIR CONSUMPTION |
|||||||||
|
COUNTRY |
BBL/DAY |
SHARE % |
EST. DATE |
OPEC |
EXPORT OPEC |
REGIME |
GDP/ POPUL $ |
GINI% |
1 |
SAUDIA ARABIA |
7 635 000 |
19,4 |
2009 |
1960 |
7 635 000 |
ABSOLUTE MONARCHY |
20 741 |
60 |
2 |
RUSSIA |
5 010 000 |
12,7 |
2010 |
|
|
AUTHORITARIAN REGIME |
13 659 |
42 |
3 |
IRAN |
2 523 000 |
6,4 |
2009 |
1960 |
2 523 000 |
ISLAMIST FANATIC REGIME |
6 076 |
45 |
4 |
UAE |
2 395 000 |
6,1 |
2009 |
1967 |
2 395 000 |
ABSOLUTE MONARCHY |
71 600 |
60 |
5 |
NORWAY |
2 184 000 |
5,6 |
2009 |
|
|
DEMOCRACY |
95 800 |
25 |
6 |
IRAQ |
2 184 000 |
5,6 |
2011 |
1960 |
2 184 000 |
US CONTROL |
3 516 |
NA |
7 |
KUWAIT |
2 127 000 |
5,4 |
2009 |
1960 |
2 127 000 |
ABSOLUTE MONARCHY |
57 000 |
60 |
8 |
NIGERIA |
2 012 000 |
5,1 |
2009 |
1971 |
2 012 000 |
INSTABLE TO VIOLENT RISK SITUATION |
1 453 |
44 |
9 |
CANADA |
1 929 000 |
4,9 |
2009 |
|
|
DEMOCRACY |
51 735 |
32 |
10 |
VENEZUELA |
1 871 000 |
4,8 |
2009 |
1960 |
1 871 000 |
CURRENT AUTHORITATIAN PRESIDENT |
11 071 |
39 |
11 |
ANGOLA |
1 851 000 |
4,7 |
2009 |
2007 |
1 851 000 |
Improved situation- presidential regime |
5 517 |
NA |
12 |
ALGERIA |
1 694 000 |
4,3 |
2009 |
1969 |
1 694 000 |
MILITARY REGIME DE FACTO |
5 228 |
36 |
13 |
LIBYA |
1 580 000 |
4.0 |
2010 |
1962 |
1 580 000 |
TRANSITIONAL ISLAMIC REGIME |
14 000 |
NA |
14 |
MEXICO |
1 511 000 |
3,9 |
2009 |
|
|
State authority questioned by narcotics gangs |
10 304 |
52 |
15 |
KAZAKHSTAN |
1 390 000 |
3,6 |
2011 |
|
|
DICTATORSHIP |
10 000 |
27 |
16 |
QATAR |
1 038 000 |
2,7 |
2011 |
1961 |
1 038 000 |
ABSOLUTE MONARCHY |
86 500 |
41 |
17 |
ECUADOR |
333 000 |
0.8 |
2007 |
2007 |
333 400 |
INSTABLE DEMOCRACY |
4 335 |
47 |
|
TOTAL |
39 267 000 |
100 |
|
69,20% |
27 243 400 |
|
|
|
Among the 17 oil producers and exporters in the world, only Norway and Canada are real democracies that together provide 10% of exports.
Ninety percent of oil exports are supplied to major Western countries by precarious countries.
A-ABSOLUTE ISLAMIC MONARCHIES
COUNTRIES |
BBL/DAY EXPORTS |
% |
SAUDIA ARABIA |
7 635 000 |
19.4 |
UAE |
2 395 000 |
6.1 |
KUWAIT |
2 127 000 |
5.4 |
QATAR |
1 038 000 |
2.7 |
TOTAL |
13 195 000 |
33.6 |
B- EXTREMIST COUNTRIES AND DICTATORSHIPS
COUNTRIES |
BBL/DAY EXPORTS |
% |
IRAN |
2 523 000 |
6.4 |
ALGERIA |
1 694 000 |
4.3 |
KAZAKHSTAN |
1 390 000 |
3.6 |
TOTAL |
5 607 000 |
14.3 |
C- COUNTRIES WITH PRECARIOUS POLITY
COUNTRIES |
BBL/DAY EXPORTS |
% |
IRAQ |
2 184 000 |
5.6 |
LYBIA |
1 580 000 |
4.0 |
TOTAL |
3 764 000 |
9.6 |
D- RUSSIA
COUNTRIES |
BBL/DAY EXPORTS |
% |
RUSSIE |
5 010 0000 |
12.7 |
Russia is not a total democracy because restricted freedom of expression, the strength of few oligarchs and the need for a strong leadership. The levy rate is very low and the distribution of income is very unequal. Russia can use its exports of oil and gas to make pressure on its customers and it did it already.
E-COUNTRY SUBJECT TO AN INSTABILITY DUE TO INTERNAL EXISTING OR POTENTIAL VIOLENCE
COUNTRIES |
BBL/DAY EXPORTS |
% |
NIGERIA |
2 012 000 |
5.1 |
VENEZUELA |
1 871 000 |
4.8 |
ANGOLA |
1 851 000 |
4.7 |
MEXICO |
1 511 000 |
3.9 |
ECUADOR |
333 000 |
0.8 |
TOTAL |
7 578 000 |
19.3 |
5- THE PRACTICAL CHOICES IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY
The dependence on oil should be reduced for the following reasons:
1. Oil is a highly polluting product regarding exploitation, transportation and consumption.
2. Apart from its use as an energy source, the petroleum-based products are also pollutants as the result of their near-indestructibility.
3. Oil is a finite resource whose price should continue automatically grow in a long run if it is utilized .
4. The number of oil producing countries is small as compared to the consuming countries and the market is particularly unbalanced.
5. Fifteen of the seventeen producer and exporter countries are not real democracies and each may alone or in association and for a various reasons, may influence the price of oil with heavy social and economic consequences for importing countries. These fifteen countries whose regimes are unstable and sometimes belligerent, could also pose a threat to one another that can influence the global oil price (example: Iran / Saudi Arabia).
The non-oil energy sources are the solution to get rid of this constant threat. Until we can use equivalent ecological resources, nuclear energy is a way with a limited pollution as compared to oil, to be partially rid of the major risk that exists with a too large oil consumption. The Nuclear waste management should be improved and of course countries with seismic risk cannot utilize nuclear energy.
France has a remarkable advance in this area and the EPR that is expected to produce more electricity (+10.34%) in using less uranium (-15%) appears to be an acceptable temporary solution.