Geopolitics-Military deterrence

PLANETARY GEOPOLITICS AND  ECONOMICS TODAY

 III-MILITARY DETERRENCE

Society for the Promotion of a European Human Rights Model

Association pour la Promotion d'un Modèle Européen des Droits de l'Homme

By  Didier BERTIN

July 20, 2012

Table of Contents 

I-INTRODUCTION-page 7

II - GDP - page 11

1-THE TWO WORLD LEADERS: UNITED STATES AND CHINA AND THE OTHER THIRTEEN  COUNTRIES HAVING A GDP HIGHER THAN ONE TRILLION USD -page 11

2-THE FIRST FOURTEEN COUNTRIES - INDIA EXCLUDED page 13

3-COUNTRIES HAVING A GDP INCLUDED BETWEEN ONE HUNDRED BILLION USD AND ONE TRILLION USD - page 13

4-THE OTHER HUNDRED THIRTY FOUR COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD INCLUDING INDIA-page 14

5-CASE OF THE FIRST THREE ECONOMIC LEADERS COMPARED TO THE FOURTH ONE- page 14

6-REAL WORLD AND MEDIA WORLD - PAGE 16

7-EXAMPLES OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN REAL WORLD AND MEDIA WORLD-Page 18

8-THE LIMITS OF GDP AND THE DANGERS OF ITS GROWTH - Page 44

III-MILITARY DETERRENCE - page 49

1-THE TWO REAL GREAT POWERS-Page 49

2-THE THREE SECONDARY POWERS page 51

3-OTHER COUNTRIES WITH ANNUAL DEFENCE BUDGET  IN EXCESS OF FORTY BILLION - page 52

4 - ISRAEL -page 55

IV-OIL: RISK FOR THE DEMOCRACIES - page 57

1 - MAIN NET-OIL IMPORTERS -page 57

2-ORGANIZATION OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS - page 58

3-ECONOMIC SITUATION OF OIL PRODUCERS AND  EXPORTERS -    page 59

4-POLITY OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS  - page 62

5- THE CHOICES IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY - page 65

V-PUBLIC DEBT-page 66

1 - KEY DATA ON PUBLIC DEBT-page 66

2- THE RISK OF OVER-INDEBTEDNESS CONCERNS ESSENTIALLY THE RICHEST COUNTRIES -page 67

3-THE PUBLIC "OVER-INDEBTED" COUNTRIES ARE MAINLY IN THE RICHEST ONES, ACCOUNTING FOR ONLY  13.9% OF WORLD POPULATION -  page 68

4- EUROPEAN UNION, EURO AREA AND PUBLIC DEBT - page 71

5- JAPAN -page  73

6 - POLICY REGARDING  PUBLIC INDEBTEDNESS-page 74

VI -OTHER ECONOMIC OPTIONS - page 75

1 - THE RISK OF PROTECTIONISM - page 75

2 - ECONOMIC CHALLENGES- page 76 

VII - PLANETARY SOCIAL DISPARTIES - page 80

1-DEFINITION-page 80

2-CALCULATION- page-80

3-GINI INDEX APPLIED TO THE PLANET-page 81

4-ANALYSIS-page 86

VIII-THE REASONS WHY THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT A GREAT POWER - Page 93

1-EU AND NATO-page 93

2-CREATION AND TREATIES - EXPANSION AND INTEGRATION, Page 96

3-THE PROBLEM OF THE APPLICATION OF THE CHARTER OF FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS-page 98

4-THE CONSTRAINTS OF DECISION MAKING-page 100

5 - INSTITUTIONS page 101

6-THE POLITICAL ORIENTATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION-page 108

7-INTERNATIONAL POLITICS - page 112

8-THE CASE OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS - page 113

9- THE DISPARITIES OF THE MEDIAN INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION - page 114

10-THE NEW MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION -page 115

11-THE LIMITS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION page 116

12-A PARTICULAR EXAMPLE OF THE RIGHTIST ROOTING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION-page 119

A-The Prague Declaration of June 3, 2008 - page 120

B-The dangerous consequences of the Declaration  of Prague and of the related Declaration of the European Parliament-page 121

k-DECLARATION - page 135

IX - GENERAL CONCLUSION -page 138

APPENDICES

1-DATA OF THE FIRST 60 COUNTRIES WITH GDP HIGHER THAN 100 BILLIONS USD AND THE REST OF THE WORLD - Pages 145 and 146 

2-DATA ON THE INDEBTED COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION page 147 

3-DATA OF THE  EURO AREA COUNTRIES -page 148 

4-GENERAL DATA OF THE EUROPEAN UNION -page 149

III-MILITARY DETERRENCE

Defense expenditures may generate  a deterrent in order to be heard of dictatorships, which enslave their peoples or of terrorist states or to react to any attacks. A country cannot be a great power if it has no deterrent. These expenses as a percentage of GDP are an indication of the willingness of a country to defend itself or give the measure of his bellicosity, but ultimately the sole absolute value of military expenditure are the indicator of the deterrent of a country on the international stage.

The size of the military budget in absolute value depends on that of the economy of a country, which limits the number of major powers.

One could distinguish three groups of countries:

• The two major world powers.

• The three secondary powers that could intervene in limited conflicts or in addition to the actions of great powers or in association.

• The powers that seek to impose themselves locally and have high military budget in proportion to their GDP.

1-THE TWO WORLD LEADERS

ANNUAL EXPENSES OF DEFENSE

A-     U S A

Permanent member of UN Security Council

B-CHINA

Permanent member of UN Security Council

GDP in purchasing power parity taking into account the undervaluation of the Yuan

C-Other references

Averaged defense expenditures:

Countries of the EU: 12.8 billion USD each i.e. 1.8% of the budget of the United States.

Other countries of the world: 4.1 billion USD each  i.e. 0.6% of the budget of the United States. 

2-THE THREE SECONDARY POWERS  

Military expenditures exceeding  60 billion USD:

There are only three countries in this category

A- France

Permanent member of UN Security Council

B-United Kingdom

Permanent member of UN Security Council

Although the expenditures of France and the UK account respectively for only 10.5% for 9.7% of those of the United States, these two powers are the only ones able to act effectively away from their borders.

However the UK seems to have chosen to be only an auxiliary force of the United States. 

C-Russia

Permanent member of UN Security Council

Russia ranks only ninth in the world by the size of its GDP and its defense expenditures are only equivalent  to those of France but this country has to defend the vastest national territory of the world. However as the second largest oil exporter and related products and permanent member of the Security Council and with strong leadership Russia has a significant influence power on the international stage.

3 - OTHER COUNTRIES WITH DEFENSE BUDGET HIGHER THAN FORTY BILLION

USD

A-Germany

After the catastrophic defeat of 1945, Germany has chosen or was forced to  break with its militaristic Prussian tradition as this is reflected the modesty of its defense expenditures in percentage of GDP. Germany is therefore only a major economic power.

B-Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia denies its people a disproportionate percentage of its resources due to  its excessive military expenditures. The military budget is intended to discourage  outside appetites on its oil resources. Part of its resources are   dedicated to the United States since Saudi Arabia is one of its key suppliers.

The defense expenditures permit also   to protect the interests of the royal family who reigns supreme.

Saudi Arabia is a longtime ally and supplier of oil to the United States, it is a dictatorship or an Islamist absolute monarchy that cannot be sure of a long lasting future.

Because of repeated threats by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz through which one third of the oil traffic passes, the U.S. has strengthened the armament of Saudi Arabia.

C-Japan

More than in the case of Germany, the percentage of GDP allocated to military expenditures shows a desire or an obligation of pacifism after the dramatic defeat in 1945 due to its past military tradition.

Regarding defense, Japan remains in the shadow of the U.S. and is not even a member of NATO because of its Constitution. Indeed, under Article 9 of its Constitution Japan has renounced to recourse to war and generally to all military means to settle international disputes.

Japan is therefore only a major economic power. 

D-India

India has a vast territory and a huge population to defend. The absolute value of its military expenditures is very high for a so poor country, notably  because of its dispute over Kashmir with Pakistan that has already generated three wars. India and Pakistan threaten each other with nuclear weapons. 

E-Australia

Australia must defend a very large territory inhabited by a small population. 

F-Turkey

The high percentage of GDP dedicated to military expenditures, indicates that the army is a national institution, which traditionally accounts for a relatively autonomous power.

Turkey needs to address the tensions with the Kurdish people, who unfortunately do not have their own country because of the decision of the former colonialist powers and might be probably under pressure from Syria and Iraq as it endangers their water resources by the construction of 22 dams on the Tigris and the Euphrates, as soon as these two countries have resumed a stable existence.

4 - ISRAEL

Despite it represent a high percentage of GDP , Israel has a defense budget relatively limited (16th in the world) since he can be at any time in the center of a conflict involving the entire Middle East. Israel has faced many conflicts in order to ensure his security.

The military expenditures  are restricted to regional needs but are heavy for a country of near eight million people. These expenditures are in line with the sum of those of potentially hostile or hostile countries. However, Israel has his own military industry that covers a portion of his needs and generates exports. 

Figures in USD  billion:

Egypt: 8;  Syria: 3.9;  Jordan: 2.4;  Lebanon: 1.3;  Iran: 12.

Total amount without Iran is 15.6 but  27.6  with Iran as compared to 18 for Israel. However the sum of military expenditures of these countries has a very limited meaning given the total lack of synergy between them.

The advent of offensive Islamist governments in the many Arab countries and Turkey that may increase a conflict risk compounded by instability in Syria and the threat of Iran .

Israel remains a dominant regional military power because of:

• his high tech military industry

• his expertise and experience

• his troops mobilized and effective, Men: 1,517,510 - Women: 1,446,132

• the importance of unrequited transfers that could reduce or increase its defense effort as needed: 9,480 million USD in 2010.